The Biden administration has been quick to tout the latest jobs report as evidence of a solid labor market, but a closer look reveals a different story. The labor market resembles Swiss cheese, with job growth being limited to foreigners in part-time positions in only a few areas of the country.
In the past year, only 15 percent of America’s metropolitan areas have seen any job growth, leaving the remaining 85 percent with stagnant payrolls. This isolated growth is concerning, especially when considering the quality of the jobs being created.
Part-time jobs have seen an increase, with 51,000 added in February alone, while full-time positions plummeted by 187,000. Over the past three months, the economy has lost 1.9 million full-time jobs, marking the largest drop since the Global Financial Crisis, excluding the government-imposed lockdowns in 2020.
Since June of last year, the economy has shed 1.8 million full-time jobs, replacing them with 1.7 million part-time positions. This shift has resulted in minimal progress, with full-time job numbers remaining relatively unchanged since March 2022.
A concerning trend is the rise in multiple job-holders, with 1.6 million Americans taking on second jobs in the last three years. These individuals are double-counted in monthly payroll figures, creating a misleading impression of increased employment.
Moreover, monthly job growth figures are often revised downward, casting doubt on the true state of the labor market. A significant portion of new jobs added to payroll employment are actually adjustments from previous months, further complicating the picture.
The discrepancy between the two surveys used to calculate employment and unemployment rates adds another layer of uncertainty. While historically correlated, these surveys have recently diverged, raising questions about the accuracy of reported employment figures.
Despite some areas of the country showing job growth, it is primarily foreign-born workers who are benefiting. Native-born Americans have seen little to no progress in job opportunities, with employment levels lagging behind pre-pandemic trends.
The stark reality is that native-born Americans have experienced a net loss of 1 million jobs over the past four years, while foreign-born workers have seen a significant increase in employment. This disparity has contributed to widespread disapproval of the Biden administration’s economic policies.
In conclusion, while the top-line numbers may paint a rosy picture of the labor market, a closer examination reveals underlying issues. The reliance on part-time and multiple job-holders, revisions to job growth figures, and disparities in employment opportunities for native-born Americans all point to a labor market that is far from solid. It is essential to look beyond the headlines and scrutinize the details to gain a more accurate understanding of the current economic landscape.
