The latest monthly jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been dubbed a “blowout” by CNN, with 303,000 net new jobs created in March. President Joe Biden wasted no time in claiming credit for this positive development, stating that the report marks a milestone in America’s comeback, with a total of 15 million jobs created since he took office. However, a closer look at the data reveals some potential political landmines ahead for the president if recent trends continue.
One concerning trend highlighted in the report is the decline in employment among US natives over the past year. While there was a slight uptick in employment last month, data shows that in the past 12 months, employment among US natives has decreased by 651,000. This decline has been particularly focused on men, a demographic that President Biden has been struggling to win over. In contrast, employment among foreign-born individuals has grown by 1,266,000 in the same period, driven by the increasing population of foreign-born individuals in the US.
The disparity between US native and foreign-born employment becomes even more pronounced when looking at data since last summer. Since July 2023, employment of US natives has fallen by over 2.0 million, while employment of foreign-born individuals has risen by almost 1.4 million. This trend could potentially lead to native men blaming the administration’s border policies for their declining employment opportunities.
Another troubling trend highlighted in the report is the increase in unemployment among Black or African American individuals. Unemployment in this demographic rose in March for the third consecutive month, reaching over 1.4 million, the highest level since January 2022. The unemployment rate for Black or African American individuals has also increased from 5.1 percent to 6.4 percent in the past year. This rise in unemployment among a group whose loyalty the president needs could further exacerbate tensions in cities like Chicago, New York, and Boston.
Additionally, the report shows a decline in full-time employment, with full-time employment falling by 6,000 last month while part-time employment rose by 691,000. Full-time employment has decreased in each of the last four months and is down by over 1.3 million since March 2023. In contrast, part-time employment has been on the rise, increasing by 1.9 million since March 2023. This trend of part-time employment outpacing full-time employment has been ongoing since before the pandemic, with part-time employment growing six times as fast as full-time employment in percentage terms.
These data, sourced from the Bureau of Labor Statistics household survey, shed light on potential challenges for the Biden administration if recent trends persist. While the headline jobs figures may paint a rosy picture of job creation, underlying trends such as declining employment among US natives, rising unemployment among Black or African American individuals, and the growth of part-time employment over full-time employment could pose political challenges for the president. It remains to be seen whether these trends will reverse in the coming months, but addressing these issues will be crucial for convincing key voting blocks of the strength of the labor market.
